College football

Week 7

Projected margin and win probability for every game on the slate, set against the posted market line. Sort by edge to put the widest disagreements on top, or by kickoff to read the week in order. Ranked teams carry their number from the week 7 AP Top 25.

Matchup	Model line	Market line	Edge	Win prob
Delaware 2-3 Middle Tennessee 2-3 Tue, Oct 13 · 7:00 PM ET	Delaware −4.7	Delaware −1.5	3.2	66.3%
66.3% Delaware 33.7% Middle Tennessee Delaware66.3% Middle Tennessee33.7% Projected margin Delaware by 4.7 Disagreement with market 3.2 pts moderate Venue Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium — Murfreesboro, TN
Florida International 3-2 Jacksonville State 4-2 Tue, Oct 13 · 8:00 PM ET	Jacksonville State −3.9	Jacksonville State -3.0	0.9	63.5%
36.5% Florida International 63.5% Jacksonville State Florida International36.5% Jacksonville State63.5% Projected margin Jacksonville State by 3.9 Disagreement with market 0.9 pts slight Venue AmFirst Stadium — Jacksonville, AL
Kennesaw State 1-4 Missouri State 1-4 Wed, Oct 14 · 7:30 PM ET	Kennesaw State −6.7	Kennesaw State −3.0	3.7	72.3%
72.3% Kennesaw State 27.7% Missouri State Kennesaw State72.3% Missouri State27.7% Projected margin Kennesaw State by 6.7 Disagreement with market 3.7 pts moderate Venue Plaster Sports Complex — Springfield, MO
Western Kentucky 2-4 Sam Houston 1-4 Wed, Oct 14 · 8:00 PM ET	Sam Houston −2.2	Western Kentucky −1.5	3.6	57.6%
42.4% Western Kentucky 57.6% Sam Houston Western Kentucky42.4% Sam Houston57.6% Projected margin Sam Houston by 2.2 Disagreement with market 3.6 pts moderate Venue Elliott T. Bowers Stadium — Huntsville, TX
Georgia Southern 2-4 Old Dominion 2-4 Thu, Oct 15 · 7:30 PM ET	Georgia Southern −3.1	Georgia Southern −4.0	0.9	60.9%
60.9% Georgia Southern 39.1% Old Dominion Georgia Southern60.9% Old Dominion39.1% Projected margin Georgia Southern by 3.1 Disagreement with market 0.9 pts slight Venue S.B. Ballard Stadium — Norfolk, VA
East Carolina 3-2 UAB 3-3 Thu, Oct 15 · 7:30 PM ET	East Carolina −8.6	East Carolina −4.5	4.2	77.5%
77.5% East Carolina 22.5% UAB East Carolina77.5% UAB22.5% Projected margin East Carolina by 8.6 Disagreement with market 4.2 pts moderate Venue Protective Stadium — Birmingham, AL
Colorado State 2-3 Texas State 2-3 Thu, Oct 15 · 8:00 PM ET	Texas State −9.2	Texas State -14.0	4.8	78.9%
21.1% Colorado State 78.9% Texas State Colorado State21.1% Texas State78.9% Projected margin Texas State by 9.2 Disagreement with market 4.8 pts moderate Venue Bobcat Stadium (TX) — San Marcos, TX
Memphis 5-1 Tulane 2-3 Fri, Oct 16 · 7:30 PM ET	Memphis −6.7	Memphis −7.0	0.3	72.3%
72.3% Memphis 27.7% Tulane Memphis72.3% Tulane27.7% Projected margin Memphis by 6.7 Disagreement with market 0.3 pts slight Venue Yulman Stadium — New Orleans, LA
App State 3-2 Coastal Carolina 2-4 Fri, Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ET	App State −0.8	App State −1.5	0.7	52.8%
52.8% App State 47.2% Coastal Carolina App State52.8% Coastal Carolina47.2% Projected margin App State by 0.8 Disagreement with market 0.7 pts slight Venue Brooks Stadium (SC) — Conway, SC
Washington 3-3 Purdue 3-3 Fri, Oct 16 · 8:00 PM ET	Purdue −2.0	Purdue -3.5	1.5	57.0%
43.0% Washington 57.0% Purdue Washington43.0% Purdue57.0% Projected margin Purdue by 2.0 Disagreement with market 1.5 pts slight Venue Ross-Ade Stadium — West Lafayette, IN
Kansas 2-3 Kansas State 3-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Kansas State −4.4	Kansas State -4.5	0.1	65.1%
34.9% Kansas 65.1% Kansas State Kansas34.9% Kansas State65.1% Projected margin Kansas State by 4.4 Disagreement with market 0.1 pts slight Venue Bill Snyder Family Stadium — Manhattan, KS
25 Northwestern 4-1 Michigan State 2-4 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Northwestern −11.2	Northwestern −7.5	3.7	83.2%
83.2% 25 Northwestern 16.8% Michigan State Northwestern83.2% Michigan State16.8% Projected margin Northwestern by 11.2 Disagreement with market 3.7 pts moderate Venue Spartan Stadium — East Lansing, MI
Ball State 1-5 Bowling Green 2-4 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Bowling Green −6.9	Bowling Green -6.5	0.4	72.8%
27.2% Ball State 72.8% Bowling Green Ball State27.2% Bowling Green72.8% Projected margin Bowling Green by 6.9 Disagreement with market 0.4 pts slight Venue Doyt L. Perry Stadium — Bowling Green, OH
Florida 4-2 7 Texas 4-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Texas −13.1	Texas -10.5	2.6	86.6%
13.4% Florida 86.6% 7 Texas Florida13.4% Texas86.6% Projected margin Texas by 13.1 Disagreement with market 2.6 pts slight Venue DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — Austin, TX
16 Mississippi State 4-1 22 LSU 4-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	LSU −10.6	LSU -14.0	3.4	82.0%
18.0% 16 Mississippi State 82.0% 22 LSU Mississippi State18.0% LSU82.0% Projected margin LSU by 10.6 Disagreement with market 3.4 pts moderate Venue Tiger Stadium (LA) — Baton Rouge, LA
Charleston Southern 2-3 Clemson 3-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Clemson −37.0	—	—	99.5%
0.5% Charleston Southern 99.5% Clemson Charleston Southern0.5% Clemson99.5% Projected margin Clemson by 37.0 Venue Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) — Clemson, SC
Pittsburgh 5-1 Boston College 2-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Pittsburgh −18.5	Pittsburgh −6.5	12.0	93.3%
93.3% Pittsburgh 6.7% Boston College Pittsburgh93.3% Boston College6.7% Projected margin Pittsburgh by 18.5 Disagreement with market 12.0 pts strong Venue Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) — Chestnut Hill, MA
Virginia 4-2 24 SMU 4-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	SMU −2.3	SMU -9.5	7.2	58.3%
41.7% Virginia 58.3% 24 SMU Virginia41.7% SMU58.3% Projected margin SMU by 2.3 Disagreement with market 7.2 pts strong Venue Gerald J. Ford Stadium — University Park, TX
4 Ohio State 5-1 5 Indiana 6-0 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Indiana −0.6	Ohio State −3.5	4.1	52.0%
48.0% 4 Ohio State 52.0% 5 Indiana Ohio State48.0% Indiana52.0% Projected margin Indiana by 0.6 Disagreement with market 4.1 pts moderate Venue Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) — Bloomington, IN
Cincinnati 4-1 West Virginia 3-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Cincinnati −2.3	West Virginia -1.5	3.8	58.1%
58.1% Cincinnati 41.9% West Virginia Cincinnati58.1% West Virginia41.9% Projected margin Cincinnati by 2.3 Disagreement with market 3.8 pts moderate Venue Milan Puskar Stadium — Morgantown, WV
Georgia State 4-1 James Madison 6-0 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	James Madison −16.0	James Madison -12.5	3.5	90.8%
9.2% Georgia State 90.8% James Madison Georgia State9.2% James Madison90.8% Projected margin James Madison by 16.0 Disagreement with market 3.5 pts moderate Venue Bridgeforth Stadium — Harrisonburg, VA
Florida Atlantic 4-1 Army 3-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET	Army −9.4	Army -2.5	7.0	79.4%
20.6% Florida Atlantic 79.4% Army Florida Atlantic20.6% Army79.4% Projected margin Army by 9.4 Disagreement with market 7.0 pts strong Venue Michie Stadium — West Point, NY
Rutgers 1-4 Maryland 2-4 Sat, Oct 17 · 12:30 PM ET	Maryland −6.1	Maryland -6.0	0.1	70.5%
29.5% Rutgers 70.5% Maryland Rutgers29.5% Maryland70.5% Projected margin Maryland by 6.1 Disagreement with market 0.1 pts slight Venue SECU Stadium — College Park, MD
Charlotte 0-6 Temple 2-4 Sat, Oct 17 · 1:00 PM ET	Temple −25.4	Temple -21.5	3.9	97.4%
2.6% Charlotte 97.4% Temple Charlotte2.6% Temple97.4% Projected margin Temple by 25.4 Disagreement with market 3.9 pts moderate Venue Lincoln Financial Field — Philadelphia, PA
Massachusetts 4-2 Buffalo 3-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 1:00 PM ET	Buffalo −1.2	Buffalo -6.5	5.4	54.1%
45.9% Massachusetts 54.1% Buffalo Massachusetts45.9% Buffalo54.1% Projected margin Buffalo by 1.2 Disagreement with market 5.4 pts strong Venue UB Stadium — Amherst, NY
The Citadel 2-4 Texas A&M 3-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 1:00 PM ET	Texas A&M −51.9	—	—	99.9%
0.1% The Citadel 99.9% Texas A&M The Citadel0.1% Texas A&M99.9% Projected margin Texas A&M by 51.9 Venue Kyle Field — College Station, TX
Western Michigan 4-2 Central Michigan 3-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 1:30 PM ET	Western Michigan −9.6	Western Michigan −6.5	3.1	79.7%
79.7% Western Michigan 20.3% Central Michigan Western Michigan79.7% Central Michigan20.3% Projected margin Western Michigan by 9.6 Disagreement with market 3.1 pts moderate Venue Kelly/Shorts Stadium — Mount Pleasant, MI
6 Alabama 5-1 14 Tennessee 5-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Alabama −10.9	Alabama −8.5	2.4	82.6%
82.6% 6 Alabama 17.4% 14 Tennessee Alabama82.6% Tennessee17.4% Projected margin Alabama by 10.9 Disagreement with market 2.4 pts slight Venue Neyland Stadium — Knoxville, TN
Georgia Tech 2-3 Virginia Tech 4-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Virginia Tech −7.0	Virginia Tech -10.0	2.9	73.2%
26.8% Georgia Tech 73.2% Virginia Tech Georgia Tech26.8% Virginia Tech73.2% Projected margin Virginia Tech by 7.0 Disagreement with market 2.9 pts slight Venue Lane Stadium — Blacksburg, VA
UNLV 4-2 Air Force 4-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Air Force −0.7	Air Force -1.5	0.8	52.6%
47.4% UNLV 52.6% Air Force UNLV47.4% Air Force52.6% Projected margin Air Force by 0.7 Disagreement with market 0.8 pts slight Venue Falcon Stadium — Colorado Springs, CO
13 Missouri 5-1 9 Ole Miss 4-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Ole Miss −1.4	Ole Miss -6.0	4.6	55.1%
44.9% 13 Missouri 55.1% 9 Ole Miss Missouri44.9% Ole Miss55.1% Projected margin Ole Miss by 1.4 Disagreement with market 4.6 pts moderate Venue Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — Oxford, MS
Akron 1-5 Miami (OH) 3-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Miami (OH) −14.4	Miami (OH) -9.5	4.9	88.6%
11.4% Akron 88.6% Miami (OH) Akron11.4% Miami (OH)88.6% Projected margin Miami (OH) by 14.4 Disagreement with market 4.9 pts moderate Venue Yager Stadium — Oxford, OH
Northern Illinois 0-5 Wyoming 3-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Wyoming −6.9	Wyoming -7.5	0.6	72.8%
27.2% Northern Illinois 72.8% Wyoming Northern Illinois27.2% Wyoming72.8% Projected margin Wyoming by 6.9 Disagreement with market 0.6 pts slight Venue War Memorial Stadium — Laramie, WY
Penn State 3-3 Michigan 3-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Michigan −0.2	Michigan -6.5	6.3	50.7%
49.3% Penn State 50.7% Michigan Penn State49.3% Michigan50.7% Projected margin Michigan by 0.2 Disagreement with market 6.3 pts strong Venue Michigan Stadium — Ann Arbor, MI
Auburn 3-2 1 Georgia 6-0 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Georgia −20.6	Georgia -20.5	0.1	95.0%
5.0% Auburn 95.0% 1 Georgia Auburn5.0% Georgia95.0% Projected margin Georgia by 20.6 Disagreement with market 0.1 pts slight Venue Sanford Stadium — Athens, GA
Arizona State 3-2 10 Texas Tech 5-0 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Texas Tech −19.3	Texas Tech -14.5	4.8	94.0%
6.0% Arizona State 94.0% 10 Texas Tech Arizona State6.0% Texas Tech94.0% Projected margin Texas Tech by 19.3 Disagreement with market 4.8 pts moderate Venue Jones AT&T Stadium — Lubbock, TX
North Carolina 3-2 Duke 4-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Duke −5.0	Duke -3.0	2.0	67.1%
32.9% North Carolina 67.1% Duke North Carolina32.9% Duke67.1% Projected margin Duke by 5.0 Disagreement with market 2.0 pts slight Venue Wallace Wade Stadium — Durham, NC
Toledo 4-2 Eastern Michigan 4-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET	Toledo −11.4	Toledo −6.5	4.8	83.5%
83.5% Toledo 16.5% Eastern Michigan Toledo83.5% Eastern Michigan16.5% Projected margin Toledo by 11.4 Disagreement with market 4.8 pts moderate Venue Rynearson Stadium — Ypsilanti, MI
Tulsa 3-3 Rice 1-5 Sat, Oct 17 · 4:30 PM ET	Tulsa −5.7	Tulsa −4.0	1.7	69.3%
69.3% Tulsa 30.7% Rice Tulsa69.3% Rice30.7% Projected margin Tulsa by 5.7 Disagreement with market 1.7 pts slight Venue Rice Stadium — Houston, TX
Troy 3-2 Louisiana 4-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 5:00 PM ET	Louisiana −5.5	Louisiana -4.5	1.0	68.6%
31.4% Troy 68.6% Louisiana Troy31.4% Louisiana68.6% Projected margin Louisiana by 5.5 Disagreement with market 1.0 pts slight Venue Cajun Field — Lafayette, LA
Washington State 1-5 Oregon State 4-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 6:00 PM ET	Oregon State −19.2	Oregon State -17.5	1.6	93.9%
6.1% Washington State 93.9% Oregon State Washington State6.1% Oregon State93.9% Projected margin Oregon State by 19.2 Disagreement with market 1.6 pts slight Venue Reser Stadium — Corvallis, OR
Arkansas State 2-4 Southern Miss 1-4 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET	Arkansas State −4.4	Arkansas State −7.0	2.6	65.1%
65.1% Arkansas State 34.9% Southern Miss Arkansas State65.1% Southern Miss34.9% Projected margin Arkansas State by 4.4 Disagreement with market 2.6 pts slight Venue M. M. Roberts Stadium — Hattiesburg, MS
Arkansas 2-4 Vanderbilt 3-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET	Vanderbilt −5.1	Vanderbilt -6.0	0.9	67.6%
32.4% Arkansas 67.6% Vanderbilt Arkansas32.4% Vanderbilt67.6% Projected margin Vanderbilt by 5.1 Disagreement with market 0.9 pts slight Venue FirstBank Stadium — Nashville, TN
TCU 2-3 Baylor 4-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET	Baylor −5.6	Baylor -5.5	0.1	69.0%
31.0% TCU 69.0% Baylor TCU31.0% Baylor69.0% Projected margin Baylor by 5.6 Disagreement with market 0.1 pts slight Venue McLane Stadium — Waco, TX
Nevada 2-3 North Dakota State 5-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET	North Dakota State −16.8	North Dakota State -15.5	1.3	91.7%
8.3% Nevada 91.7% North Dakota State Nevada8.3% North Dakota State91.7% Projected margin North Dakota State by 16.8 Disagreement with market 1.3 pts slight Venue Fargodome — Fargo, ND
Florida State 3-3 3 Miami 5-0 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET	Miami −23.6	Miami -21.0	2.6	96.7%
3.3% Florida State 96.7% 3 Miami Florida State3.3% Miami96.7% Projected margin Miami by 23.6 Disagreement with market 2.6 pts slight Venue Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, FL
Kent State 2-4 South Florida 4-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:00 PM ET	South Florida −25.6	South Florida -20.5	5.2	97.5%
2.5% Kent State 97.5% South Florida Kent State2.5% South Florida97.5% Projected margin South Florida by 25.6 Disagreement with market 5.2 pts strong Venue Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
Wisconsin 4-1 12 UCLA 5-0 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET	UCLA −8.7	UCLA -2.5	6.2	77.6%
22.4% Wisconsin 77.6% 12 UCLA Wisconsin22.4% UCLA77.6% Projected margin UCLA by 8.7 Disagreement with market 6.2 pts strong Venue Rose Bowl — Pasadena, CA
15 Kentucky 5-1 Oklahoma 3-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET	Oklahoma −5.5	Oklahoma -7.0	1.5	68.7%
31.3% 15 Kentucky 68.7% Oklahoma Kentucky31.3% Oklahoma68.7% Projected margin Oklahoma by 5.5 Disagreement with market 1.5 pts slight Venue Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) — Norman, OK
Louisville 3-3 Syracuse 2-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET	Louisville −9.2	Louisville −14.5	5.3	78.9%
78.9% Louisville 21.1% Syracuse Louisville78.9% Syracuse21.1% Projected margin Louisville by 9.2 Disagreement with market 5.3 pts strong Venue JMA Wireless Dome — Syracuse, NY
18 Oklahoma State 4-1 20 Houston 5-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET	Houston −11.6	Houston -4.5	7.1	83.9%
16.1% 18 Oklahoma State 83.9% 20 Houston Oklahoma State16.1% Houston83.9% Projected margin Houston by 11.6 Disagreement with market 7.1 pts strong Venue TDECU Stadium — Houston, TX
2 Notre Dame 6-0 8 BYU 5-0 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET	Notre Dame −11.0	Notre Dame −10.0	1.0	82.8%
82.8% 2 Notre Dame 17.2% 8 BYU Notre Dame82.8% BYU17.2% Projected margin Notre Dame by 11.0 Disagreement with market 1.0 pts slight Venue LaVell Edwards Stadium — Provo, UT
Elon 3-3 Stanford 2-4 Sat, Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET	Stanford −22.2	—	—	96.0%
4.0% Elon 96.0% Stanford Elon4.0% Stanford96.0% Projected margin Stanford by 22.2 Venue Stanford Stadium — Stanford, CA
Louisiana Tech 3-2 UL Monroe 0-5 Sat, Oct 17 · 8:00 PM ET	Louisiana Tech −23.7	Louisiana Tech −15.5	8.2	96.7%
96.7% Louisiana Tech 3.3% UL Monroe Louisiana Tech96.7% UL Monroe3.3% Projected margin Louisiana Tech by 23.7 Disagreement with market 8.2 pts strong Venue Malone Stadium — Monroe, LA
Navy 2-3 UTSA 5-1 Sat, Oct 17 · 8:00 PM ET	UTSA −9.2	UTSA -6.5	2.7	78.8%
21.2% Navy 78.8% UTSA Navy21.2% UTSA78.8% Projected margin UTSA by 9.2 Disagreement with market 2.7 pts slight Venue Alamodome — San Antonio, TX
San José State 3-3 UTEP 1-5 Sat, Oct 17 · 9:00 PM ET	San José State −8.9	San José State −7.5	1.4	78.0%
78.0% San José State 22.0% UTEP San José State78.0% UTEP22.0% Projected margin San José State by 8.9 Disagreement with market 1.4 pts slight Venue Sun Bowl — El Paso, TX
Ohio 4-2 Sacramento State 1-5 Sat, Oct 17 · 10:00 PM ET	Ohio −16.2	Ohio −14.0	2.2	91.1%
91.1% Ohio 8.9% Sacramento State Ohio91.1% Sacramento State8.9% Projected margin Ohio by 16.2 Disagreement with market 2.2 pts slight Venue Hornet Stadium — Sacramento, CA
11 Utah 5-0 Colorado 2-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 10:15 PM ET	Utah −24.7	Utah −15.5	9.2	97.1%
97.1% 11 Utah 2.9% Colorado Utah97.1% Colorado2.9% Projected margin Utah by 24.7 Disagreement with market 9.2 pts strong Venue Folsom Field — Boulder, CO
Fresno State 4-2 San Diego State 2-4 Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET	Fresno State −8.6	Fresno State −7.5	1.1	77.3%
77.3% Fresno State 22.7% San Diego State Fresno State77.3% San Diego State22.7% Projected margin Fresno State by 8.6 Disagreement with market 1.1 pts slight Venue Snapdragon Stadium — San Diego, CA
21 Wake Forest 5-1 California 3-3 Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET	Wake Forest −15.5	Wake Forest −9.5	6.0	90.2%
90.2% 21 Wake Forest 9.8% California Wake Forest90.2% California9.8% Projected margin Wake Forest by 15.5 Disagreement with market 6.0 pts strong Venue California Memorial Stadium — Berkeley, CA
New Mexico 4-1 Hawai'i 1-5 Sat, Oct 17 · 10:30 PM ET	New Mexico −25.3	New Mexico −14.0	11.3	97.4%
97.4% New Mexico 2.6% Hawai'i New Mexico97.4% Hawai'i2.6% Projected margin New Mexico by 25.3 Disagreement with market 11.3 pts strong Venue Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex — Honolulu, HI
Nebraska 5-1 Oregon 3-2 Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 PM ET	Oregon −8.1	Oregon -7.5	0.6	76.0%
24.0% Nebraska 76.0% Oregon Nebraska24.0% Oregon76.0% Projected margin Oregon by 8.1 Disagreement with market 0.6 pts slight Venue Autzen Stadium — Eugene, OR

5+Model and market are far apart

3–5Moderate disagreement

<3Broadly in line with the market